Bitcoin's Boring Phase

Setting the Trap?

Author

Shelby Cannon
January 23, 2026

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Bitcoin’s Next Move 🎈        

  

Bitcoin started the year like it had just chugged an espresso—strong, loud, and full of promise. Then it promptly tripped over its own shoelaces. The rally fizzled, prices sagged, and crypto spent most of 2025 doing its best impression of a car stuck in neutral. Not exactly the moon mission promised by the four-year cycle crowd.

So what went wrong? Simple: money stopped moving.

Central Bank Liquidity

The Forecast 💹 

Global liquidity—the not-so-glamorous but absolutely essential flow of money and credit created by central banks—flatlined through most of 2025. And crypto, much like a houseplant, doesn’t thrive without a steady supply of financial sunlight. When liquidity dries up, Bitcoin and its altcoin friends tend to wilt about three months later. This isn’t theory. It’s been the rule for as long as crypto price data has existed.

That explains the soggy performance. The good news? The weather forecast for 2026 looks much brighter.

The Signs 🛑 

Here’s where things get interesting. U.S. Treasury bonds—yes, the same bonds usually associated with sensible shoes and early bedtimes—have a habit of leading the crypto market by about 13 months. Bonds move first, liquidity follows, and Bitcoin shows up fashionably late. Right now, bonds are flashing a very specific signal: a potential crypto bottom between mid-February and late February.

In market terms, that’s the equivalent of a giant neon sign reading, “This might be the dip.”

The Fed Factor 🏦 

Three forces are lining up to support this view. First, interest rate cuts. When the Federal Reserve cuts rates, bond prices tend to rise. When bond prices rise, liquidity usually improves about a year later. With rate cuts already underway and more expected, the bond market is effectively voting for easier financial conditions ahead.

Second, the end of quantitative tightening. For the past couple of years, the Fed has been quietly siphoning money out of the system. Ending that process doesn’t magically flood markets with cash, but it does stop the constant drain. For crypto, that’s like finally releasing the parking brake.

Treasury General Account

Third, the Treasury General Account—the government’s checking account at the Fed—is finally reversing course. For much of 2025, it acted like a vacuum cleaner, sucking liquidity out of markets. Now it’s easing up. Historically, changes here show up in Bitcoin prices about three months later, which again points to a late-winter bottom.

The Takeaway 🥡 

Put it all together, and the picture becomes clear: 2025 may have been a letdown, but early 2026 is shaping up to offer one of the most attractive crypto entry points of the year. Bitcoin’s correction appears closer to the finish line than the starting gate.

In other words, while everyone else is still complaining about last year’s potholes, the smart money may already be eyeing the on-ramp ahead.


COIN SPOTLIGHT 🔍️ 

Reality Check: Who’s Winning? 🥇 
 

Crypto delivers no shortage of opinions each month. Unfortunately, opinions don’t pay the bills. The Monthly Sanity Check focuses on what actually matters: which token-backed apps are generating real revenue, which sectors are attracting capital, and how real-world assets are quietly pushing crypto toward something resembling adulthood.

No hype cycles. No doom spirals. Just a reality check.

The Top 5

Forget the Hype 📰 

These are the apps turning onchain activity into actual dollars—complete with tokens you can buy.

  1. Hyperliquid (HYPE) — $52.3M
    The undisputed home of onchain leverage trading. Traders keep trading, fees keep flowing, and Hyperliquid keeps sitting comfortably at the top.

  2. PumpFun (PUMP) — $34.1M
    The memecoin launchpad that refuses to go away. Love it or hate it, PumpFun continues to win the memecoin wars on sheer volume and velocity.

  3. Sky (SKY) — $33.2M
    A crypto-native savings platform delivering returns that make traditional banks look like they’re still using fax machines.

  4. Meteora (MET) — $11.9M
    A major liquidity engine on Solana, quietly powering trades while others fight for attention.

  5. Jupiter (JUP) — $10.3M
    Solana’s largest DEX aggregator, proving once again that infrastructure isn’t flashy—but it’s profitable.

Quick reality check: Hyperliquid and PumpFun are still glued to the top, and Solana-based apps had a strong showing with three of the five spots locked down.

The Quiet Data 🖨️ 

Next, a look at where prices—not just narratives—are moving.

Privacy led the pack, powered by Monero’s surge of over 60%. This happened despite another major privacy token taking a significant hit, which makes the sector’s overall performance even more impressive. Social tokens followed closely, with Chiliz leading strong gains, while File Storage, the Bitcoin ecosystem, and NFT apps rounded out the list.

Translation: capital rotation is alive and well, and it doesn’t care about yesterday’s hot takes.

Real Adoption: RWAs 💳️ 

Real World Assets (RWAs)—think cash, commodities, and stocks—remain one of the clearest indicators of real crypto adoption. More RWAs onchain means more transactions, more fees, and more demand for native tokens.

Total RWA Value

The Signals 🚥 

Stablecoins remain untouchable at the top with roughly 220 million holders. That throne isn’t under threat anytime soon. But below them, the race is heating up. Commodities have long held second place, yet public equities are closing the gap fast. Since early December, onchain equities have grown holder counts by over 30%, compared to just over 6% for commodities.

That shift matters. It signals growing comfort with bringing traditional financial assets onto blockchain rails.

Taken together, this month’s data tells a simple story: revenue is concentrated, sector leadership is shifting, and RWAs are doing the quiet, unglamorous work of driving real adoption. Not flashy—but very real.


NOTABLE QUOTES 📚️ 


“Never be bullied into silence. Never allow yourself to be made a victim. Accept no one’s definition of your life; define yourself.”
 
— Robert Frost


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LAST CHAPTER 📺️ 


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