GET IT RIGHT 🎯 

Bull Run Delayed? 🐂    

Crypto analysts love their cycles. The sacred 4-year rhythm that supposedly governs all booms, busts, halvings, and Twitter arguments. But according to a now-viral thread by the account Gammichan, that cycle just got steamrolled — by none other than artificial intelligence.

And surprisingly, the current downturn might be the most bullish setup the market’s had in years.

The Classic Loop ➿ 

Traditionally, the economy runs on a predictable loop:

• The economy weakens.

• People lose jobs.

• The Fed cuts rates.

• Businesses borrow cheaply, hire faster, spend more.

• Growth picks up.

• Inflation climbs.

• The Fed slams the brakes again.

• Crypto follows the dance — soaring on cheap money and sinking when liquidity dries up.

It’s a rinse-and-repeat cycle that usually leaves markets higher each time around. At least, until AI decided to make things interesting.

The Script Broke 📜 

In 2022, the Fed hiked rates aggressively to fight inflation — which should have led to a weakened economy and the usual setup for a crypto boom.

And it did weaken… just not enough.

Because AI showed up like an overcaffeinated intern trying to impress the CEO.

The AI boom — fueled by tech giants and data-center-gobbling GPUs — pumped unexpected life into the economy. Not broad-based growth, just a super-charged surge among the Magnificent 7: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia.

These seven companies ballooned so dramatically that they now make up over half the value of the entire S&P 500. That concentration became a problem. A big one.

Blocking the Bull Run 🎯 

Because AI propped up the tech sector so much, the overall economy didn’t weaken fast enough for the Fed to cut rates.

Translation:

The “sweet spot” for a classic crypto bull market never arrived.

Instead of getting the usual low-rate liquidity wave, crypto had to rely on institutional inflows and a slowly improving regulatory environment in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin didn’t get its traditional breakout fuel. It had to improvise.

Turning Bullish? 💵 

Here’s the twist:

The economy is finally weakening. Manufacturing is cooling. The AI sugar high won’t last forever.

And when the weakness becomes undeniable, the Fed cuts rates — because that’s what the Fed always does.

More weakness → more pressure to stimulate → cheaper money → crypto rocket fuel.

The low-rate bull run everyone assumed was lost? It may simply be late.

Bottom Line 📊 

AI broke the 4-year cycle. The Magnificent 7 delayed the bull run.

But the mechanics behind crypto’s biggest rallies are still alive — just pushed forward. And if the cycle realigns the way history suggests? 2026 could be the year the rocket finally lights.

Driving the Next Uptrend 🎢 

When markets wobble, one timeless question returns like a Marvel sequel: Is this just a correction, or the start of a full-blown bear market?

It’s the financial equivalent of, “Are we there yet?” — annoying, critical, and impossible to stop asking. So let’s break down the state of the market with actual context instead of panic-induced guesswork.

1. The Bigger Cycle 🌀 

Crypto typically follows a familiar rhythm tied closely to economic cycles:
three years of growth, one year of retraction, then repeat.

The current cycle was expected to peak around October — and so far, that prediction has been surprisingly accurate.

But then came the tariff-driven growth scare earlier this year, which punted the economy into a momentary chaos loop. Instead of continuing its normal trajectory, the scare may have forced the cycle to “bottom early” and restart.

In other words, the cycle may not be “extending” so much as resetting. A fresh cycle beginning between mid-2022 and early 2025 would put markets at the start of a new uptrend, not the tail end of an old one.

Not exactly mainstream thinking — but the charts tell a compelling story.

2. The Push and Pull ⚒️ 

The market’s medium-term direction depends on two categories of catalysts:

Things that put money into consumers’ pockets:

• Interest rate cuts

• Potential $2,000 tariff-rebate stimulus checks

• Government workers getting back pay

• Regulatory clarity (Market Structure Bill, Clarity Act)

Things that suck money out of the system:

• Rising inflation

• Climbing unemployment

• Flat or rising interest rates

• Legislative roadblocks on the crypto regulatory front

It’s not complicated: more disposable income = stronger markets. Less disposable income = sad charts and sadder traders.

3. Short-Term Catalyst 🏦 

For the immediate future, the only event that matters sits on the earnings calendar like a boss fight: Nvidia.

A mere 2% swing in Nvidia’s stock price equals roughly $90 billion in market cap — more than the entire valuation of Solana. That’s how outsized its influence has become.

What ‘s Next? 🔮 

The market sits in that messy middle ground where narratives collide:

The next few months aren’t about guessing tops or bottoms — they’re about watching the forces that actually move money.

And right now, those forces suggest the story isn’t over.

COIN SPOTLIGHT 🔍️ 

STAGE RIGHT 🎬️     

NOTABLE QUOTES 📚️ 

“A person often meets his destiny on the road he took to avoid it.”
 
— Jean de La Fontaine

GARAGE LOGIC ☕️

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